After a few rocky years for the economy, the consumer goods industry is at a crossroads. To succeed now, brands have to look beyond old-school loyalty programs and find new ways to deliver real, dependable value to today’s shoppers. In the grocery store, shopping is changing rapidly.
Shoppers have learned to protect their budgets.
The American shopper isn’t in full-on crisis mode anymore. They’ve settled into a new normal, with flexible routines and a practical, value-first mindset that helps shield them from the stress of inflation.
In the past, how people felt about the economy lined up perfectly with how they felt about their own wallets. It made sense—prices were up, and their money just didn’t stretch as far at the grocery store. But this year, something’s changed, and it’s affecting how and where people shop.
Even though more people are pessimistic about the economy as a whole, fewer say it’s directly hurting their household finances, changing their spending, or forcing them to cut back on groceries. It seems that the new habits they’ve picked up—like switching stores, trying new brands, and hunting for deals—are now just part of their routine. By making these changes, shoppers have insulated themselves from economic ups and downs and feel like they have a better handle on their budgets.
That’s not to say grocery costs aren’t a worry. 67% of people we surveyed still feel the pinch of inflation on their finances.
This price-first attitude has led to more people buying store brands, especially as they’ve come to see them as comparable in quality to the big national names. It also means fewer people are sticking to a rigid grocery list. Instead, they’re shopping more flexibly, ready to swap out an item if they spot a good sale or promotion in the aisle.
For brands, the message is clear: the fight to get into the shopping cart is tougher than ever. With about three-quarters (74%) of the average cart filled with items people typically buy, getting someone to try a new product is a significant challenge. It often takes a steep discount—25% or more in categories like food—to get them to switch. Additionally, digital promotions are no longer a nice-to-have. 56% of shoppers now see digital coupons and cash-back offers as a standard part of the shopping experience.
Nearly a third of shoppers (32%) now walk into a store with only a rough idea or no plan at all for what to buy, up from 25% last year. This isn’t random; it’s a strategy. It gives them the freedom to stray from their usual brands to take advantage of a great deal right in front of them.
We can see this in how people are saving money on groceries. Catching in-store sales was the most common savings tactic, used by 60% of people, up from 55% last year. But digital coupons and cash back remain the most popular tactics, used by 64% of shoppers.
For three consecutive years, the average shopping cart has remained remarkably consistent, indicating that loyalty is largely a matter of habit. That stable 74% of the cart consists of items people have bought before—a solid lineup of trusted, value-driven choices. This makes winning over new customers the central challenge for every brand.
This leaves a very small window of opportunity: only 26% of the cart is available to first-time buyers. That tiny, shifting slice is the entire battleground for growth. The challenge is even bigger when you consider that 76% of shoppers agree that once they find a brand they like, they stick with it.
But this is also an opportunity. If a brand can convince a shopper to try their product just once, it could quickly become part of the secure 74% of their cart. This makes driving that first trial the most important strategy for gaining ground in today’s price-driven market.
The battle for loyalty isn’t the same across the board; it changes from one aisle to the next. Brands need to understand the unique quirks of their category—especially how resistant shoppers are to trying something new—if they want to persuade people to switch.
Still, a few things are true everywhere. The main reasons people buy something again are consistent, reliable quality and performance, followed closely by the best mix of quality and price.
How hard it is to get a shopper to try a new brand varies a lot by category. Understanding this “switching friction” can help brands determine how strong an incentive they need to offer to break a shopper’s habit and win a new customer.
When faced with a higher price, shoppers usually do one of three things: buy it anyway, switch to a cheaper option, or just not buy it at all. The path they choose depends on what they’re shopping for and whether they consider it an essential or a “nice-to-have.”
For non-essential items, people are much more willing to trade down or skip the purchase. In the Home goods category, half of shoppers will switch to a cheaper alternative, and in Food, 47% will do the same. In fact, Food has the highest opt-out rate, with 18% choosing not to purchase the discretionary item. For Drinks and Health & Beauty, while trading down is still common, a good number of shoppers (41% and 39%) will stick with their preferred brand anyway, showing that even for non-essentials, brand loyalty can be a powerful force.
Buying store brands has become a normal part of the weekly shop, and all signs point to this trend continuing. Among the shoppers we surveyed, 44% said they’re buying more store-brand products than last year and plan to continue doing so.
Looking ahead, 88% of shoppers expect to either maintain or increase their purchases of private-label goods, with 35% planning to buy even more. This shift is driven by value, with 62% of shoppers now saying price is more important than the brand name on the label.
Crucially, the perceived quality gap between name brands and store brands is shrinking fast. The share of people who believe name brands are higher quality fell from 44% to 38% in the past year. This shows that store brands are increasingly delivering the consistent, reliable quality shoppers want, taking away one of the biggest reasons people used to avoid them.
To win back shoppers who’ve switched to private labels, brands need to double down on price and quality. A significant 48% of shoppers said the price difference between a national brand and a store brand would have to disappear for them to consider switching back. Another 20% want to see name brands improve their quality or ingredients. This might be easier said than done, but it’s what it will take for brands to stay competitive.
Promotions aren’t about loyalty anymore—they’re just part of the price.
The purpose of discounts and promotions has completely changed. They used to be a tool for building loyalty, but now they’re an expected and essential part of the transaction. This changes the role of promotions in a shopper’s relationship with a brand and how marketers should use them.
Today’s shoppers have learned to stabilize their routines amid a shaky economy, but that doesn’t mean things are standing still. The core habits we’re seeing—making decisions based on price and expecting promotions as part of the deal—are here to stay, but the market will continue to change. People aren’t just reacting to the economy anymore; they are actively and intentionally deciding where and how to spend their money.
Promotions are no longer a special event; they’re an always-on part of the strategy needed to close the deal for both value-priced and premium items. Going forward, success will depend on a two-part approach: first, investing smartly to get that first trial and break into the 26%, and then, building the kind of long-term loyalty that earns a permanent spot in the cart—a loyalty based not on feelings, but on offering the best, most consistent value.
For brands navigating this new world, the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) offers the playbook they need. The IPN delivers the insights and tools to overcome shopper resistance and earn a lasting place in the modern grocery cart.
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