Will digital media overtake TV?

wrong media forecastPOST SUMMARY: The prediction that digital media will overtake TV in 2018 is not based, in my opinion, on real world scenarios and does not take into account how TV will change to meet consumer needs.

Recent trends indicate that brands are planning to ramp up their digital spending in 2014.  However with the increase in spending marketers are going to be asked to show real-world results.   From a consumers point-of-view advertisers are still trying to cut through the clutter online but as the Internet becomes more important to users they are choosing in higher numbers to ignore advertisers.

US Spend my Media

The idea that digital will overtake TV is founded purely on a trend analysis as well as brief input from media/advertising companies.  However it ignores the following:

1ne: TV is still the best way to build awareness for “mass market” products.

2wo: Social media organic reach is declining for brands.

3hree:As consumers rely more on their mobile devices they are getting tired of mobile ads.

4our: TV programming will adapt to changing consumer needs and will continue to hold the attention of viewers.

TV provides better reach than digital for mass-market products
TV provides better reach than digital for mass-market products

Before you buy into any predictions about the future you need to ask yourself if the forecaster has a business background or is just a journalist.

please_wait_here_photo2_ian_stevenson